ה׳ can treat us causally or casually, can actively involve Himself in our existence to protect us, or leave us to the vagaries of random fate. The negative reinforcement implied in the תוכחה is less a punishment, than a reversion to normal.
The מידה כנגד מידה of our not recognizing ה׳'s hand is the hiding of that very hand.
And מקרה is the word used to describe עמלק 's attack.
But the תוכחה ends on an odd note.
Ramban points out the problem: ה׳ is apparently punishing us after we do תשובה!
The Ohr HaChaim adds more questions:
Rashi only addresses the last question, and says that “או” means “if” or “perhaps”, and ואז ירצו את עונם is the consequent.
But או doesn’t mean “perhaps”:
So Ramban says “ואז” really means “או אז”. Either יכנע לבבם or ירצו את עונם.
There are two models of גאולה:
The גאולה of וזכרתי את בריתי יעקוב… will happen, but on G-d’s schedule. We can make it happen faster if we do תשובה.
And then Ramban answers his question (Ohr HaChaim’s question ב): why does ה׳ say אני אלך עמם בקרי והבאתי אתם בארץ איביהם after the ודוי? Our pasuk evokes an earlier one.
בני ישראל will return to their land. But it won’t be easy. They will continue to be surrounded by enemies, still have to fight for their continued survival. גאולה is not a single sudden event; it is a process.
The Ohr HaChaim is not satisfied with any of the previous commentators.
The “future” tense in אני אלך עמם בקרי והבאתי אתם בארץ איביהם in Biblical Hebrew isn’t really future; it is the “imperfect”; an uncompleted action. It is also used for ongoing, habitual actions.
So אני אלך עמם בקרי והבאתי אתם בארץ איביהם means “I would repeatedly treat them casually”. It is part of the וידוי. The people will confess their sins, and even their ancestors' sins, and even acknowledge that ה׳ was behind their misfortunes.
Part of the sin, והלכתם עמי בקרי, is denying that ה׳ is there. היש ה׳ בקרבנו אם אין led to אשר קרך בדרך. The version of the תוכחה in דברים makes the distinction between אין אלקי בקרבי and אנכי הסתר אסתיר פני.
Before the גאולה, the people have to see that ה׳ is still there: אלך עמם, even if בקרי; הבאתי אתם even if it is בארץ איביהם.
And what about this או אז יכנע? Ohr HaChaim says that we don’t even have to actually express that וידוי.
And I would go further. אז with the imperfect is a Biblical idiom for intent rather than actual action.
My favorite example, now that I’m planning a wedding:
So yes, really, we need to see ה׳'s hand in everything we experience. But ה׳ will give us credit for even thinking about getting to that level of תשובה.
The גאולה of (ויקרא כו:מה) וזכרתי להם ברית ראשנים אשר הוצאתי אתם מארץ מצרים לעיני הגוים להיות להם לאלקים will come. It will not be easy, but it is achievable. We just have to start.